Reliability and Responsiveness of Clinical and Endoscopic Outcome Measures in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Regulatory guidance for Crohn's disease trials recommends coprimary efficacy end points that evaluate both symptoms and mucosal inflammation. We aimed to characterize the operating properties of commonly used disease activity assessments alone and in combination. METHODS: Endoscopic and clinical data were available for 129 participants from the Study of Biologic and Immunomodulator Naïve Patients in Crohn's Disease trial. Readers scored the Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease and the Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity using standardized conventions. Index reliability was determined using intraclass correlation coefficients. Index responsiveness was assessed using standardized effect sizes based upon treatment assignment. Outcomes were evaluated for optimal sensitivity to treatment effect. RESULTS: Substantial inter-rater reliability was observed when the Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity were used as continuous measures (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-0.73; and 0.62 95% CI, 0.36-0.77) compared with moderate reliability when dichotomized (0.46; 95% CI, 0.26-0.65; and 0.51; 95% CI, 0.00-0.78). The Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease, Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity, patient-reported outcome-2, and Crohn's Disease Activity Index were similarly responsive (standardized effect size, 0.43, 95% CI, 0.05-0.81; 0.38, 95% CI, 0.0-0.76; 0.53, 95% CI, 0.15-0.91). A composite outcome of Crohn's Disease Activity Index score <150 and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity score <6 was most sensitive to treatment effect (28.9%; 95% CI, 11.0%-46.8%; P = .003). CONCLUSION: Endoscopic indices were more reliable as continuous measures. Composite outcomes including endoscopy improved sensitivity to treatment effect.

This study largely supports current regulatory guidance for Crohn's disease trials recommending coprimary efficacy end points evaluating both symptoms and mucosal inflammation. Continuous endoscopic measures are most reliable and improve sensitivity to treatment effect when employed in composite outcomes.

Determining the optimal treatment target in patients with ulcerative colitis: rationale, design, protocol and interim analysis for the randomised controlled VERDICT trial.

INTRODUCTION: Symptoms, endoscopy and histology have been proposed as therapeutic targets in ulcerative colitis (UC). Observational studies suggest that the achievement of histologic remission may be associated with a lower risk of complications, compared with the achievement of endoscopic remission alone. The actiVE ulcerative colitis, a RanDomIsed Controlled Trial (VERDICT) aims to determine the optimal treatment target in patients with UC. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this multicentre, prospective randomised study, 660 patients with moderate to severe UC (Mayo rectal bleeding subscore [RBS] ≥1; Mayo endoscopic score [MES] ≥2) are randomly assigned to three treatment targets: corticosteroid-free symptomatic remission (Mayo RBS=0) (group 1); corticosteroid-free endoscopic remission (MES ≤1) and symptomatic remission (group 2); or corticosteroid-free histologic remission (Geboes score <2B.0), endoscopic remission and symptomatic remission (group 3). Treatment is escalated using vedolizumab according to a treatment algorithm that is dependent on the patient's baseline UC therapy until the target is achieved at weeks 16, 32 or 48. The primary outcome, the time from target achievement to a UC-related complication, will be compared between groups 1 and 3 using a Cox proportional hazards model. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by ethics committees at the country level or at individual sites as per individual country requirements. A full list of ethics committees is available on request. Study results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and at scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT: 2019-002485-12; NCT04259138.

Identification of immune cell markers associated with ulcerative colitis histological disease activity in colonic biopsies.

AIMS: Accurate determination of histological activity in ulcerative colitis (UC) is essential given its diagnostic and prognostic importance. Data on the relationship between histology and immune cell markers are limited. We aimed to evaluate the association between histological disease activity and immune cell marker concentration in colonic biopsies from patients with UC. METHODS: Sigmoid colon biopsies from 20 patients with UC were retrospectively assessed using the Robarts Histopathology Index (RHI). Targeted mass spectrometry determined the concentration of 18 immune cell markers (cluster of differentiation (CD) 4, CD8, CD19, CD20, CD40, CD56, CD68, CD103, forkhead box p3 (FOXP3), human leucocyte antigen, DR alpha chain (HLA-DRA), interleukin 10 (IL-10), IL-23 subunit alpha (IL-23A), IL-23 receptor (IL-23R), IL-2 receptor alpha chain (IL-2RA), Ki67, lymphocyte-activation gene 3 (LAG-3), programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) and PD ligand 1 (PD-L1)). The association between RHI score and immune cell marker concentration was quantified using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (ρ) and related 95% CIs. RESULTS: Fourteen of the 18 immune cell marker proteins were detected, with tissue concentration ranging from 0.003 to 11.53 fmol/µg. The overall RHI score was positively correlated with CD19, CD20, CD40, FOXP3, LAG-3, PD-1 and PD-L1 concentration (ρ=0.596-0.799) and negatively correlated with CD56 concentration (ρ=-0.460). There was no significant association between RHI score and CD4, CD8, CD68, CD103, HLA-DRA or Ki67 concentration. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insight into the correlation between immune cell marker expression and histological disease activity and the possible molecular and immunological determinants underlying microscopic disease activity in UC.

Comparative Efficacy of Advanced Therapies for Achieving Endoscopic Outcomes in Crohn's Disease: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We conducted a network meta-analysis to compare the efficacy of advanced therapies for achieving endoscopic outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severely active Crohn's disease. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were searched from inception to August 2, 2023 to identify phase II and III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in adults (≥18 years) with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease treated with tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists, etrolizumab, vedolizumab, anti-interleukin (IL)12/23p40, anti-IL23p19, or Janus kinase-1 (JAK1) inhibitors, compared with placebo/active comparator, for induction and/or maintenance of remission and reported endoscopic outcomes. Primary outcome was endoscopic response after induction therapy, and endoscopic remission after maintenance therapy. We performed a random-effects network meta-analysis using a frequentist approach, and estimated relative risk (RRs), 95% confidence interval (CI) values, and P score for ranking agents. We used GRADE to ascertain certainty of evidence. RESULTS: A total of 20 RCTs (19 placebo-controlled and 1 head-to-head trial; 5592 patients) were included out of which 12 RCTs reported endoscopic outcomes for the induction phase, 5 reported for the maintenance phase, and 3 reported for both induction and maintenance phases. JAK1 inhibitors (RR, 3·49 [95% CI, 1·48-8·26]) and anti-IL23p19 (RR, 2·30 [95% CI, 1·02-5·18]) agents were more efficacious than etrolizumab (moderate certainty of evidence), and JAK1 inhibitors (RR, 2·34 [95% CI, 1·14-4·80]) were more efficacious than anti-IL12/23p40 agents for inducing endoscopic response (moderate certainty of evidence). JAK1 inhibitors and anti-IL23p19 ranked highest for induction of endoscopic response. There was paucity of RCTs of TNF antagonists reporting endoscopic outcomes with induction therapy. On network meta-analysis of 6 RCTs, all agents except vedolizumab (RR, 1.89 [95% CI, 0.61-5.92]) were effective in maintaining endoscopic remission compared with placebo. TNF antagonists, IL12/23p40, and JAK1 inhibitors were ranked highest. CONCLUSIONS: On network meta-analysis, JAK1 inhibitors and anti-IL23p19 agents may be the most effective among non-TNF-targeting advanced therapies for inducing endoscopic response. Future head-to-head trials will further inform positioning of different therapies for the management of Crohn's disease.

Who sleeps well in Canada? The social determinants of sleep health among middle-aged and older adults in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.

OBJECTIVES: Sleep health inequities likely contribute to disparities in health outcomes. Our objective was to identify social determinants of sleep health among middle-aged/older adults in Canada, where prior evidence is limited. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging, a survey of over 30,000 community-dwelling adults aged 45-85years. Self-reported measures included sleep duration, sleep satisfaction, and sleep efficiency. We explored associations between sleep measures and social determinants of health. We used modified Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios for sleep satisfaction and sleep efficiency, and linear regression for sleep duration. Estimates were adjusted for all social, lifestyle, and clinical covariates. We explored effect modification by sex. RESULTS: Of the 11 social determinants explored, all were significantly associated with at least one domain of sleep health. These associations were reduced to 9 variables with adjustment for all social variables, and 7 with further adjustment for lifestyle and clinical covariates, including differences by sex, age, education, marital status, employment, race/ethnicity, and sexual orientation. Better sleep health in >1 domain was observed among males, older age groups (65 and older), higher income groups, the retired group, and homeowners with adjustment for social variables, and only in males and older age groups with additional adjustment for lifestyle and clinical variables. Only sleep duration associations were modified by sex. CONCLUSIONS: Sleep health disparities among Canadian adults exist across socioeconomic gradients and racial/ethnic minority groups. Poor sleep health among disadvantaged groups warrants increased attention as a public health problem in Canada.

Recommendations for Standardizing MRI-based Evaluation of Perianal Fistulizing Disease Activity in Pediatric Crohn's Disease Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Perianal fistulas and abscesses occur commonly as complications of pediatric Crohn's disease (CD). A validated imaging assessment tool for quantification of perianal disease severity and activity is needed to evaluate treatment response. We aimed to identify magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based measures of perianal fistulizing disease activity and study design features appropriate for pediatric patients. METHODS: Seventy-nine statements relevant to MRI-based assessment of pediatric perianal fistulizing CD activity and clinical trial design were generated from literature review and expert opinion. Statement appropriateness was rated by a panel (N = 15) of gastroenterologists, radiologists, and surgeons using modified RAND/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness methodology. RESULTS: The modified Van Assche Index (mVAI) and the Magnetic Resonance Novel Index for Fistula Imaging in CD (MAGNIFI-CD) were considered appropriate instruments for use in pediatric perianal fistulizing disease clinical trials. Although there was concern regarding the use of intravascular contrast material in pediatric patients, its use in clinical trials was considered appropriate. A clinically evident fistula tract and radiologic disease defined as at least 1 fistula or abscess on pelvic MRI were considered appropriate trial inclusion criteria. A coprimary clinical and radiologic end point and inclusion of a patient-reported outcome were also considered appropriate. CONCLUSION: Outcomes of treatment of perianal fistulizing disease in children must include MRI. Existing multi-item measures, specifically the mVAI and MAGNIFI-CD, can be adapted and used for children. Further research to assess the operating properties of the indices when used in a pediatric patient population is ongoing.

Reliability and Responsiveness of Histologic Indices for the Assessment of Crohn's Disease Activity.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The operating properties of histologic indices for evaluating Crohn's disease (CD) activity are poorly characterized. We assessed the reliability and responsiveness of existing histologic indices/items used in CD and ulcerative colitis (UC), in addition to 3 novel items, and developed exploratory ileal, colonic, and colonic-ileal CD instruments. METHODS: Blinded central readers independently reviewed paired baseline and week 12 image sets from the EXTEND trial. Disease activity was scored using 4 indices (the Global Histologic Activity Score, Geboes Score, Nancy Histological Index, and Robarts Histopathology Index) and 3 items identified by an expert panel (mucin depletion, basal plasmacytosis, and ileal pyloric gland metaplasia). Reliability and responsiveness were quantified using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), respectively. Exploratory indices were developed using backward stepwise linear regression analysis. Candidate independent variables were items with an inter-rater ICC ≥0.40 and AUC ≥0.56. The dependent variable was histologic disease activity measured by a 100-mm visual analogue scale. RESULTS: Paired image sets were available from 55 patients. Substantial to almost perfect inter-rater reliability (ICC, 0.63-0.87) and some responsiveness (AUC, 0.57-0.94) were observed for all existing indices regardless of whether individual colonic and ileal segments, combined colonic segments, or combined colonic and ileal segments were assessed and the calculation method used. Five items were tested as candidate items, and exploratory colonic, ileal, and colonic-ileal indices were developed. CONCLUSIONS: CD and UC indices were similarly reliable and responsive in measuring histologic CD activity. Exploratory index development did not offer benefit over current histologic instruments.

Severe (level 3) hypoglycaemia occurrence in a real-world cohort of adults with type 1 or 2 diabetes mellitus (iNPHORM, United States).

AIMS: Among adults with insulin- and/or secretagogue-treated diabetes in the United States, very little is known about the real-world descriptive epidemiology of iatrogenic severe (level 3) hypoglycaemia. Addressing this gap, we collected primary, longitudinal data to quantify the absolute frequency of events as well as incidence rates and proportions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: iNPHORM is a US-wide, 12-month ambidirectional panel survey (2020-2021). Adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or insulin- and/or secretagogue-treated type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were recruited from a probability-based internet panel. Participants completing ≥1 follow-up questionnaire(s) were analysed. RESULTS: Among 978 respondents [T1DM 17%; mean age 51 (SD 14.3) years; male: 49.6%], 63% of level 3 events were treated outside the health care system (e.g. by family/friend/colleague), and <5% required hospitalization. Following the 12-month prospective period, one-third of individuals reported ≥1 event(s) [T1DM 44.2% (95% CI 36.8%-51.8%); T2DM 30.8% (95% CI 28.7%-35.1%), p = .0404, α = 0.0007]; and the incidence rate was 5.01 (95% CI 4.15-6.05) events per person-year (EPPY) [T1DM 3.57 (95% CI 2.49-5.11) EPPY; T2DM 5.29 (95% CI 4.26-6.57) EPPY, p = .1352, α = 0.0007]. Level 3 hypoglycaemia requiring non-transport emergency medical services was more common in T2DM than T1DM (p < .0001, α = 0.0016). In total, >90% of events were experienced by <15% of participants. CONCLUSIONS: iNPHORM is one of the first long-term, prospective US-based investigations on level 3 hypoglycaemia epidemiology. Our results underscore the importance of participant-reported data to ascertain its burden. Events were alarmingly frequent, irrespective of diabetes type, and concentrated in a small subsample.

Development and validation of a real-world model to predict 1-year Level 3 (severe) hypoglycaemia risk in adults with diabetes (the iNPHORM study, United States).

AIMS: We aimed to develop and internally validate a real-world prognostic model for Level 3 hypoglycaemia risk compatible with outpatient care in the United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: iNPHORM is a 12-month, US-based panel survey. Adults (18-90 years old) with type 1 diabetes mellitus or insulin- and/or secretagogue-treated type 2 diabetes mellitus were recruited from a nationwide, probability-based internet panel. Among participants completing ≥ 1 follow-up questionnaire(s), we modelled 1-year Level 3 hypoglycaemia risk using Andersen and Gill's Cox survival and penalized regression with multiple imputation. Candidate variables were selected for their clinical relevance and ease of capture at point-of-care. RESULTS: In total, 986 participants [type 1 diabetes mellitus: 17%; men: 49.6%; mean age: 51 (SD: 14.3) years] were analysed. Across follow-up, 035.1 (95% CI: 32.2-38.1)% reported ≥1 Level 3 event(s), and the rate was 5.0 (95% CI: 4.1-6.0) events per person-year. Our final model showed strong discriminative validity and parsimony (optimism corrected c-statistic: 0.77). Numerous variables were selected: age; sex; body mass index; marital status; level of education; insurance coverage; race; ethnicity; food insecurity; diabetes type; glycated haemoglobin value; glycated haemoglobin variability; number, type and dose of various medications; number of SH events requiring hospital care (past year and over follow-up); type and number of comorbidities and complications; number of diabetes-related health care visits (past year); use of continuous/flash glucose monitoring; and general health status. CONCLUSIONS: iNPHORM is the first US-based primary prognostic study on Level 3 hypoglycaemia. Future model implementation could potentiate risk-tailored strategies that reduce real-world event occurrence and overall diabetes burden.

Effects of Exercise Alone or Combined With Cognitive Training and Vitamin D Supplementation to Improve Cognition in Adults With Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Exercise, cognitive training, and vitamin D may enhance cognition in older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Objective: To determine whether aerobic-resistance exercises would improve cognition relative to an active control and if a multidomain intervention including exercises, computerized cognitive training, and vitamin D supplementation would show greater improvements than exercise alone. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial (the SYNERGIC Study) was a multisite, double-masked, fractional factorial trial that evaluated the effects of aerobic-resistance exercise, computerized cognitive training, and vitamin D on cognition. Eligible participants were between ages 65 and 84 years with MCI enrolled from September 19, 2016, to April 7, 2020. Data were analyzed from February 2021 to December 2022. Interventions: Participants were randomized to 5 study arms and treated for 20 weeks: arm 1 (multidomain intervention with exercise, cognitive training, and vitamin D), arm 2 (exercise, cognitive training, and placebo vitamin D), arm 3 (exercise, sham cognitive training, and vitamin D), arm 4 (exercise, sham cognitive training, and placebo vitamin D), and arm 5 (control group with balance-toning exercise, sham cognitive training, and placebo vitamin D). The vitamin D regimen was a 10 000 IU dose 3 times weekly. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were changes in ADAS-Cog-13 and Plus variant at 6 months. Results: Among 175 randomized participants (mean [SD] age, 73.1 [6.6] years; 86 [49.1%] women), 144 (82%) completed the intervention and 133 (76%) completed the follow-up (month 12). At 6 months, all active arms (ie, arms 1 through 4) with aerobic-resistance exercise regardless of the addition of cognitive training or vitamin D, improved ADAS-Cog-13 when compared with control (mean difference, -1.79 points; 95% CI, -3.27 to -0.31 points; P = .02; d = 0.64). Compared with exercise alone (arms 3 and 4), exercise and cognitive training (arms 1 and 2) improved the ADAS-Cog-13 (mean difference, -1.45 points; 95% CI, -2.70 to -0.21 points; P = .02; d = 0.39). No significant improvement was found with vitamin D. Finally, the multidomain intervention (arm 1) improved the ADAS-Cog-13 score significantly compared with control (mean difference, -2.64 points; 95% CI, -4.42 to -0.80 points; P = .005; d = 0.71). Changes in ADAS-Cog-Plus were not significant. Conclusions and Relevance: In this clinical trial, older adults with MCI receiving aerobic-resistance exercises with sequential computerized cognitive training significantly improved cognition, although some results were inconsistent. Vitamin D supplementation had no effect. Our findings suggest that this multidomain intervention may improve cognition and potentially delay dementia onset in MCI. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02808676.

Standardizing Scoring Conventions for Crohn's Disease Endoscopy: An International RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic assessment of disease activity is integral for evaluating treatment response in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). We aimed to define appropriate items for evaluating endoscopic activity and conventions for consistent endoscopic scoring rules in CD. METHODS: A 2-round modified RAND/University of California at Los Angeles Appropriateness Method study was conducted. A panel of 15 gastroenterologists used a 9-point Likert scale to rate the appropriateness of statements pertaining to the Simple Endoscopic Score for CD, Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity, and additional items relevant to endoscopy scoring in CD. Each statement was voted as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate based on the median panel rating and presence of disagreement. RESULTS: Panelists voted that it is appropriate for all ulcers to contribute to endoscopic scoring in CD, including aphthous ulcers, ulcerations at a surgical anastomosis, and anal canal ulcers (scored in the rectum). Endoscopic healing should reflect an absence of ulcers. Narrowing should be defined as a clear decrease in luminal diameter; stenosis should be defined by an impassable narrowing, and if occurring at the junction of 2 segments, scored in the distal segment. Scarring and inflammatory polyps were considered inappropriate for including in the affected area score. The optimal method for defining ulcer depth remains uncertain. CONCLUSIONS: We outlined scoring conventions for the Simple Endoscopic Score for CD and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity, noting that both scores have limitations. Therefore, we identified priorities for future research and steps for developing and validating a more representative endoscopic index in CD.

Real-World Effects of Second-Generation Versus Earlier Intermediate/Basal Insulin Analogues on Rates of Hypoglycemia in Adults with Type 1 and 2 Diabetes (iNPHORM, US).

INTRODUCTION: Second-generation basal insulin analogues have been shown to reduce hypoglycemia in several trials and observational studies of select populations; however, it remains unclear whether these results persist in real-world settings. Using self-reported hypoglycemia events, we assessed whether second-generation basal insulin analogues reduce rates of hypoglycemia events (non-severe/severe; overall/daytime/nocturnal) compared to earlier intermediate/basal insulin analogues among people with insulin-treated type 1 or 2 diabetes. METHODS: We used prospectively collected data from the Investigating Novel Predictions of Hypoglycemia Occurrence Using Real-World Models (iNPHORM) panel survey. This US-wide, 1-year internet-based survey assessed hypoglycemia experiences and related sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of people with diabetes (February 2020-March 2021). We estimated population-average rate ratios for hypoglycemia comparing second-generation to earlier intermediate/basal insulin analogues using negative binomial regression, adjusting for confounders. Within-person variability of repeated observations was addressed with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among iNPHORM participants with complete data, N = 413 used an intermediate/basal insulin analogue for ≥ 1 month during follow-up. After adjusting for baseline and time-updated confounders, average second-generation basal insulin analogue users experienced a 19% (95% CI 3-32%, p = 0.02) lower rate of overall non-severe hypoglycemia and 43% (95% CI 26-56%, p < 0.001) a lower rate of nocturnal non-severe hypoglycemia compared to earlier intermediate/basal insulin users. Overall severe hypoglycemia rates were similar among second-generation and earlier intermediate/basal insulin users (p = 0.35); however, the rate of severe nocturnal hypoglycemia was reduced by 44% (95% CI 10-65%, p = 0.02) among second-generation insulin users compared to earlier intermediate/basal insulin users. CONCLUSION: Our real-world results suggest second-generation basal insulin analogues reduce rates of hypoglycemia, especially nocturnal non-severe and severe events. Whenever possible and feasible, clinicians should prioritize prescribing these agents over first-generation basal or intermediate insulin in people with type 1 and 2 diabetes.

Does prescribing apixaban or rivaroxaban versus warfarin for patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation save health system costs? A multivalued treatment effects analysis.

BACKGROUND: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common heart arrhythmia in the elderly population. AF patients are at high-risk of ischemic strokes, but oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy reduces such risks. Warfarin had been the standard OAC for AF patients, however its effectiveness is highly variable and dependent on close monitoring of the anticoagulant response. Newer OACs such as rivaroxaban and apixaban address these drawbacks but are more costly. It is uncertain which OAC therapy for AF is cost-saving from the healthcare system perspective. METHODS: We followed a cohort of patients in Ontario, Canada, aged ≥ 66 who were newly diagnosed with AF and prescribed OACs between 2012 and 2017. We used a two-stage estimation procedure. First, we account for the patient selection into OACs using a multinomial logit regression model and estimated propensity scores. Second, we used an inverse probability weighted regression adjustment approach to determine cost-saving OAC options. We also examined component-specific costs (i.e., drug, hospitalization, emergency department and physician) to understand the drivers of cost-saving OACs. RESULTS: We found that compared to warfarin, rivaroxaban and apixaban treatments were cost-saving options, with per-patient 1-year healthcare cost savings at $2436 and $1764, respectively. These savings were driven by cost-savings in hospitalization, emergency department visits, and physician visits, outweighing higher drug costs. These results were robust to alternative model specifications and estimation procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Treating AF patients with rivaroxaban and apixaban than warfarin reduces healthcare costs. OAC reimbursement policies for AF patients should consider rivaroxaban or apixaban over warfarin as the first-line treatment.

Hockey Fans in Training (Hockey FIT): Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics from a cluster randomized controlled trial in men with overweight or obesity.

BACKGROUND: Previous research highlights the need for effective lifestyle interventions for men. Hockey Fans in Training (Hockey FIT) was developed as a pragmatic healthy lifestyle program tailored to men with overweight or obesity. This paper overviews the rationale, program details, and design of a recently completed cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT) of Hockey FIT. Participant engagement and baseline characteristics are also described. METHODS: The RCT evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and implementation of Hockey FIT. Forty-two sites in Canada and the United States were randomized to either the Hockey FIT intervention group or wait-list control group. Participants were men, aged 35-65 years, with a body mass index (BMI) ≥27 kg/m2. Hockey FIT is a group-based, off-ice, in-person healthy lifestyle program, including both a 3-month active phase and a 9-month minimally-supported phase. Outcomes were assessed at baseline, 3, and 12 months. The primary outcome was weight loss at 12 months. RESULTS: The design of the cluster RCT incorporates evaluations of participant health outcomes, program implementation, and broader healthcare system impact. In the RCT, 1397 participants were assessed for eligibility and 997 were enrolled. Most participants heard about the program through social media or hockey team emails. Participants averaged 49 years of age, had BMI values of 35.3 kg/m2, were predominately white, and had varying levels of education. CONCLUSION: The intended audience for Hockey FIT was recruited successfully, however, targeted recruitment to better engage diverse populations is warranted. This paper affords a useful outline for evaluating future lifestyle interventions tailored to men. This trial was registered on August 17, 2018 with ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT03636282).

Revisiting sample size planning for receiver operating characteristic studies: A confidence interval approach with precision and assurance.

Estimation of areas under receiver operating characteristic curves and their differences is a key task in diagnostic studies. Here we develop closed-form sample size formulas for such studies with a focus on estimation rather than hypothesis testing, by explicitly incorporating pre-specified precision and assurance, with precision denoted by the lower limit of confidence interval and assurance denoted by the probability of achieving that lower limit. For sample size estimation purposes, we introduce a normality-based variance function for valid estimation allowing for unequal variances of observations in the disease and non-disease groups. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed formulas produce empirical assurance probability close to the pre-specified assurance probability and empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level. Compared with a frequently used existing variance function, the proposed function provides more accurate and efficient sample size estimates. For an illustration of the proposed formulas, we present real-world worked examples. To facilitate implementation, we have developed an online calculator openly available at https://dishu.page/calculator/.

A rank-based approach to design and analysis of pretest-posttest randomized trials, with application to COVID-19 ordinal scale data.

Randomized controlled trials with a pretest-posttest design frequently yield ordered categorical outcome data. Focusing on the estimation of the win probability that a treated participant would have a better score than (or win over) a control participant, we developed methods for analysis and sample size planning for such trials. We exploited the analysis of covariance framework with the dependent variable being individual participants' win fractions at posttest and the covariate being the win fractions at pretest. The win fractions were obtained using the mid-ranks of the ordinal data. Simulation evaluation based on a recent randomized trial on COVID-19 suggests that the methods perform very well. A sample SAS code for data analysis is presented.

Comparison of the Relative Sensitivity of Clinical, Endoscopic, and Histologic Remission for Detection of Treatment Efficacy in Ulcerative Colitis Trials.

This systemic review and quantitative analysis of placebo-controlled ulcerative colitis (UC) induction trials found higher pooled histologic remission rates compared with clinical and endoscopic remission rates at the same timepoint, and no significant differences in pooled relative risks for these outcomes between treatment groups; supporting the concept that histologic remission is not less sensitive than clinical or endoscopic remission.

Existing Bowel Preparation Quality Scales Are Reliable in the Setting of Centralized Endoscopy Reading.

BACKGROUND: Development of bowel preparation products has been based upon colon cleansing rating by a local endoscopist. It is unclear how bowel preparation scales perform when centrally evaluated. AIMS: To evaluate the reliability of bowel preparation quality scales when assessed by central readers. METHODS: Four central readers evaluated 52 videos in triplicate, 2 weeks apart, during the entire endoscopic procedure (insertion/withdrawal of the colonoscope) and exclusively on colonoscope withdrawal using the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale (BBPS), Chicago Bowel Preparation scale, Harefield Cleansing Scale, Ottawa Bowel Preparation Quality Scale (OBPQS), Aronchick score, a visual analogue scale, and additional items proposed in a modified Research and Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness process. Reliability was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients. RESULTS: Intraclass correlation coefficients (95% confidence interval) for inter-rater reliability of the quality scales ranged from 0.51 to 0.65 (consistent with moderate to substantial inter-rater reliability) during the entire procedure. Corresponding intraclass correlation coefficients for intra-rater reliability ranged from 0.69 to 0.77 (consistent with substantial intra-rater reliability). Reliability was highest in the right colon and lowest in the left colon. No differences were observed in reliability when assessed for the procedure overall (insertion/withdrawal) relative to assessment on withdrawal alone. CONCLUSION: All five bowel preparation quality scales had moderate to substantial inter-rater reliability. Panelists considered the Aronchick score too simplistic for clinical trials and recognized that assessment of residual fluid in the Ottawa Bowel Preparation Quality Scale was not amenable to central assessment.

Parametric and nonparametric methods for confidence intervals and sample size planning for win probability in parallel-group randomized trials with Likert item and Likert scale data.

Data on the Likert scale are ubiquitous in medical research, including randomized trials. Statistical analysis of such data may be conducted using the means of raw scores or the rank information of the scores. In the context of parallel-group randomized trials, we quantify treatment effects by the probability that a subject in the treatment group has a better score than (or a win over) a subject in the control group. Asymptotic parametric and nonparametric confidence intervals for this win probability and associated sample size formulas are derived for studies with only follow-up scores, and those with both baseline and follow-up measurements. We assessed the performance of both the parametric and nonparametric approaches using simulation studies based on real studies with Likert item and Likert scale data. The simulation results demonstrate that even without baseline adjustment, the parametric methods did not perform well, in terms of bias, interval coverage percentage, balance of tail error, and assurance of achieving a pre-specified precision. In contrast, the nonparametric approach performed very well for both the unadjusted and adjusted win probability. We illustrate the methods with two examples: one using Likert item data and the other using Like scale data. We conclude that non-parametric methods are preferable for two-group randomization trials with Likert data. Illustrative SAS code for the nonparametric approach using existing procedures is provided.